No, it has nothing to do with the old ‘M$’. It has nothing to do with open source vs. commercial software either. My hope does not even have anything to do with my “disinterest” in WP7 right now.
The reason really is much more simple, and pragmatic, than that: whenever Microsoft has been the leader in any market they have all but stopped to innovate. Just to give a couple of examples, look no further than what happened after Microsoft came out victorious from the browser war between Internet Explorer and Netscape. They virtually stopped developing their browser and it was not until Firefox and later Chrome began to gain popularity that Microsoft finally put some effort into improving their browser again. And then of course there is the example of Windows Mobile: after Palm committed suicide by refusing to improve their hardware and software in their devices Microsoft had a window (no pun intended) of opportunity of 2-3 years to get a stronghold of the smartphone market. But instead, seemingly true to their modus operandi, they simply seemed happy that their largest competitor was out of the game and basically put their mobile OS in the drawer to collect dust. And look just how long it took Microsoft to react after that – even Steve Ballmer admitted they were late to the party.
Now I’m not saying that the other players would be any better if any of them became market leaders (just look at Nokia how complacent they became!). On the contrary, if I had to make a bet I would say that they would likely behave in the same way. But that is a supposition – with Microsoft it is a fact. They have proved that on more than one occasion.
Having said that, I really don’t expect either Microsoft nor any of the other players to become so dominant in the smartphone space that they can afford to just sit back and relax. But if one of them were to become the leader then, again, I sincerely hope that it will be Microsoft’s lot to be the chaser.